And.... now that it has been said, may as well point out that the Fib levels are meaningful support points to watch.
I hesitate to say things like that in cases like this because there are inevitably people out there who dislike or disbelieve charting. But I drew the fibs on this back around the 10th of June and I've been watching them ever since.
The 382 held till today. I have it at 3.77.
The 50 is at 3.64, and the low wick of today's red candle is resting on or about it (close enough for gummint work, LOL)
And the 618 is at 3.50; as I drew it anyway.
Oh, and the 786 is at 3.31.
Why the 786 matters is the following "history" lesson:
Looking back at former behaviors, the last time it gapped was 5/9, and in that case, it pulled back to the 786, where it closed (on 5/16) and opened (on 5/17). So, the 786 was support in the May gap chart.
The point is that the chart has shown us an example of how it behaves in a gap situation as recently as May, and in that case, it briefly retraced to the 786 and then continued back up after a brief sideways consolidation.
I would be very surprised if the next leg up did anything other than pretty much replay the strong chart we saw happen back in May. It gapped. It retraced to one of the Fib levels. It held the close there. It opened there. It had a pattern of higher lows. All of which bear noting.
As to whether it pulls as far back as the 786 in the present case.... I have no idea.
My guess is that we will see the present gap get filled, but not much beyond that.
And note this important fact: Confluence happens and is really strong at the 3.50 to 3.48 price range, and it also happens strongly at 3.30 & 3.31. Ans I have the 3.50 to 3.48 confluence as a confluence involving the three most recent Fib waves, so its really strong.
Based on the gap filling that we saw almost happen today, and on a TRIPLE confluence at 3.50 to 3.48, I seriously doubt that we will get all the way back to the present 786 Fib level (which I draw at 3.31). The triple confluence at 3.50 is just too strong.
Then again, like I said before, I'm not generally comfortable "calling" it ahead of time, but you kind of called me out for not having "mentioned" the gap until now, so I figured.... why not prove that never forcasting things is the wise move, LOL. I'm just flying by the seat of my pants.... bigtime, ha ha.
I generally just watch. This time, you kind of called me out, though, so I'm "volunteering" to put my ass in a sling by actually saying my "guestimate", but its just that: a guestimate.
Bottom line: IMHO, we are not going to crater. The chart is a screaming buy, as I see it and the downside risk, at the present time, is not all that huge.
But.... we'll see, and bear in mind: never take the advise of a stranger on a blog. Opinions are like assholes.... everyone has one, LOL
Imperial Whazoo