Replies to post #4069 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[marthambles]

From Merrill's Teva report today:

What if Copaxone’s patents
hold?
?? Generic entry assumptions differ in our TEVA, MNTA models
We initiated coverage on Momenta Pharmaceuticals today (see our comment for
details). Recall that MNTA is one of the generic challengers on Copaxone
(multiple sclerosis), which is Teva’s most important product. For conservatism, we
currently model early-2013 generic Copaxone entry in our Teva model. However,
in our MNTA model, we assume a potentially more realistic mid-2014 generic
launch on patent expiry. We performed a quick net present value (NPV) analysis
to gauge the extra value of Copaxone to TEVA were the generic launch to occur
in mid-2014 vs. early-2013. Our NPV analysis suggests that a mid-2014 launch
adds about $2/share of value to Teva (see Tables 1 and 2). Our 2013, 2014 and
2015 EPS would be about 22%, 18% and 14% higher, respectively. Maintain Buy.
Trial ruling on consolidated case could come in early 2012
Recall that a lower court consolidated the generic challengers’ (MNTA/Sandoz,
Mylan/NATCO) cases vs. Teva. The court has set a couple of trial dates – a
bench trial on 7/11/11 on MYL’s inequitable conduct defense, and a jury trial on
9/7/11 on the consolidated case. We note a trial ruling could come in early-2012

[steveporsche]

<<"Base model, DCF analysis support $19 price objective
Our base model and $19 discounted cash flow-based PO assume no competition on Lovenox until 2013 and a generic Copaxone launch in mid-2014 (Teva’s patent expiry), with MNTA alone through 2016, which we believe is reasonable.">>

This statement from BoA is especially idiotic, as MNTA's cash balance alone under such a scenario would probably exceed $19.