Do I lack creativity - probably - I don't mind speculation - that is what most are here for. Putting my view of your style or name aside, I will address your most recent points - brace yourself for a real lack of creativity though:
I don't believe Blackrock was led to HDY by XON or anyone else - they already have a strong interest in West Africa through their other holdings (via Kosmos) and know the potential of the area. Any company with enough detailed information regarding the potential of HDY's concession via review of the seismic has only gained that knowledge by reviewing the data and thereby signing a confidentiality agreement that would certainly limit their ability to take us over in a hostile manner. In addtion, I think the Guinea government would be a consideration as well and RL's relationship there appears very strong. In my opinion, the safest way in at this point is taking a JV stake.
The short position does perplex me, but given that it increased significantly after the most recent offering, my assumption is that it is more of a hedge for some of the larger holders as opposed to a true short betting against the success of HDY. I'm sure there are shorts who tagged along as they saw the overall short position increase...I think many of these will eventually get caught in a strong ride up as we near the end of the summer unless they cover.
Perhaps I am naive (in addition to being uncreative), but I do have a lot of confidence in RL. I don't see him setting himself (and his team) up to benefit at the expense of shareholders. He has shown tremendous respect for the shareholders of this company. I believe he is an honorable man who is attempting to do right by the company, shareholders and Guinea.
This is all just my humble opinion. Regardless of our differences in style or opinion, it seems we are both hopeful for good things to come from our investments here, so I truly wish you the best.