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LazySusan

06/17/11 11:28 AM

#114385 RE: Artiztic1 #114312

I know this sounds crazy, but I don't need to do any price earnings analysis. By the time any meaningful PE is attached to the JBI stock price, we will be years down the road. The PE will always look "stupidly high" as we move through the roll out of the commercialization phase.

We won't know what one machine is capable of until there are a couple of them in the field and they are operating for a couple of quarters. That doesn't mean that the market will not give JBI a crazy multiple prior to getting there. Making a prediction at this point is fun, but kind of useless.

If you are waiting for some hard numbers from this board, or other experts to make your buy or sell decisions, good luck to you.

I have a question for you. How many machines will need to be up and running, at a given output, before you believe the picture will be clear enough to invest, and what multiple will you need to have to go one way or the other?

For instance, if at the end of this year, they have 3 processors running, and the PE is 30, would that be reasonable? What if the PE is 100, is that too rich? Will you attach a premium for more machine coming on line in 2012? If so how many?

I have made a decision that I will not need to see exactly what those 3 machines operating in Niagara will be processing, I'm investing based on my belief that there will be many more operating 3 yrs out. I don't know how many, but my belief is that the stock is cheap today based on what I think will be happening in those 3 yrs.

PE analysis is for stable businesses so that we can compare them to their peer group and decide whether they are cheap or expensive on a relative basis. JBI is a growth company that, at present, doesn't have any peers.