Replies to post #7 on Duckwall-Alco Stores, Inc. (DUCK)

[littlefish]

Last year they had help from a tax gain too I think in the net figures. Think they lost almost $3 mill op income so pretty ugly.

However, they have some things going for them that will help comp to last year although there will be some headwind pressure too that last year did not have.

I was modeling them for expenses $32.5 mill SGA, $2.5 mill D&A, about $1 mill int expense.

With those rough #s, it all depends on margins. Historically 32% gross margins might be reasonable.

From previous year's Q1 GM #s:

"Gross margin as a percentage of sales was 31.1% for the first quarter of fiscal 2011, which decreased when compared to 33.4% for the first quarter of fiscal 2010."

Using the rough expense #s, $114.6 mill revs and 31% GMs I get $114.6 (.31)= $35.5 mill $35.5-$32.5 mill SGA & $2.5 D&A= $0.5 mill op income.
Int expense $1 mill gives $-0.5 mill net income.

I htink. I'm multitasking and doing this on the fly so don't rely on the #s :-)

Not sure the gross margins will be 31% either with product mix I am guessing shifting a little bit toward non discretionary items. Not sur ewhat impact the removal of duckwall stores might have too on margins. They did mention in last CC the charges with the closings were pretty much accounted for last Q so not expecting any hangover charges from that.

[littlefish]

On gross margins I should also mention in the last CC they were pretty straight forward in syaing q2 and q4 this year they are hopeful of improved margins due to some probs last year that negatively impacted them (for instance Q2 had product deficiencies in apparel and seasonals I think they said which hurt margins).
On q1 I will stick with 31% for myself though and think product mix might keep margins toward that end vs better. Dunno though and I'm new to following this comapny. I do have a decent posiiton in it though (for a little fish).
I'm not a big fish like you ;-)