Replies to post #120882 on Biotech Values

[investorgold2002]

Gilenya is going to have some impact...too early to tell though

and it would erode copaxone to some extent...I have conflicting data on this(see below)....so we have to really wait and watch for a year to know what actually is going on here.


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http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/event-calendar/2011/db-access-asia-conference-2011.pdf

please see launch run rate (page 48) in comparison with Copaxone (maybe copaxone started slow)

Also see page 49 (which drug's marketshare it is eroding)..it says 30% of GILENYA patients were previously taking Copaxone

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It's interesting during the last quarter Copaxone sales in the US went up by an IMPRESSIVE 22%
http://www.tevapharm.com/pr/2011/pr_1010.asp
"In the U.S., in-market sales increased 22% to $624 million, as a result of price increases as well as volume growth"

It is good to see that sales held on its own even with price increases(it's already 40k) and onset of new oral competition
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So, what the hell is going on ??
Maybe the overall market for MS treated patients increased?
Maybe While Copaxone is giving away some sales to Gilenya, it is also taking some share from infereons or other drugs?
Maybe Gilenya is taking marketshare from Copaxone ex-US only?
It is definitely too early to tell i guess
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[imnot6]

And I know an MS patient taking Copaxone who's "not really sure whether it's doing anything," so I guess we can draw a line through those two points to get a regression.