Replies to post #6111 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[Florinda]

"With Form-10 process completing, and bringing on new IR support, I expect we'll get more frequent press releases."--Treit

I'm rather uneasy with the idea of Chad stepping out of the picture. Has he told you this is what is going to happen soon? I think it would be very hard to find someone representing multiple companies who would both spend the time Chad has to learn the ins and outs of this rather complex business, and also have the willingness and energy to respond to so many shareholder questions. Not one of the IR people I've ever talked with has come close to the level of service that Chad provides for this company. Moreover, Chad has a longstanding vested interest in this company doing well. Perhaps Solomon will find an IR firm whose staff is already aware of SIAF to some degree. But I very much doubt he'll find someone with all Chad's traits. Nor would I expect more PR's.

Anyway, I feel Chad deserves a lot of credit for helping sustain interest in SIAF by being such an informed and responsive liaison and I hope Solomon errs on the side of keeping Chad on board too long than too short.

Steve

[treit2002]

From the presentation, asparagus will be much larger than I thought, 5/6 of HU revenues in 2011, and double HU in 2012 and 2013.

More importantly, the fish sub, scheduled to be spun out in 2013, presumably at a reasonably p/e multiple will gross $32m in 2011, $72.6M in 2012, and $182M in 2013. If percent of gross profit equals percent of net income, fish earnings will be $17.4M in 2011, $35.3M in 2012, and $89M in 2013.

An Asian public market multiple of 8 on 2013 earnings equals just about $10 per share.

The business model has growth built in; that's why the numbers ramp so very well. Yet, of course, they still have to get the contracts; build the farms; and sell the fish. As that happens, the progression is more and more credible, more and more likely.

This is why initial progress -- contracts and making guidance are so very important: they are sign posts to a plausible 10 bagger from fish alone in two years.