Yay!! Numbers! :D Always the most fun in speculation, hehe. Thanks to zambono and turn144 for kickstarting the guessing game with two divergent opinions:
I like turn144's margins as more accurate (around 30%) but am closer to zambono's sales numbers expectations (I'd give it 50k each = 250k total sales approx). The reasoning is that RR for DS was put out by us already a year or so ago and Ken mentioned in a VCC it was around the 20k mark in units sold, so that tempers my estimates (different system, I know, but telling of expectations). Also, Wii 2 is releasing next year so we only have about another 8-10 months of selling before these games go obsolete consolewise; luckily, we get the back to school rush and Xmas, so can still do pretty good.
I think you are right turn144, that as long as IPO is a distant idea (maybe it isn't, but for now I'll assume it's a long time coming) the revenues of graff and sdvi will be essentially combined. SDVI will take 10% and the rest goes to GRAFF, but GRAFF will then send remaining net over to SDVI as a deduction from the outstanding $20M Accounts receiveable between them, so it all ends up in SDVI essentially for the time being.
One last opinion, the multiple I would suggest would be 7-8 rather than 10x, (2010 videogame software peer group average multiple is around 11.8x.)as we are not visible enough to obtain enough investors to hit a high multiple IMO (being on the pink sheets for the time being, for example, will stunt investor sentiments).
So...if I steal turn144's formula method (gracias):
250k units @$10/unit = 2.5M rev @30% = 750,000 / 1.5B shares = .0005 x (8xmultiple) = .004 which is about double our current position.
Buyback should reduce O/S, and add in all other video game sales (we have a number of games selling still) to get us around .005 PPS. I'd expect us to peak above that but not be able to hold the pennies due to massive profit taking if we get that high. GRAFF IPO of course changes everything if/when it occurs.
Again, I hope it's much higher, but I don't think anyone would be too teary eyed to double their money in the next few months. :)
Cheers,
Saredi
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