Replies to post #240636 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[vineseeker2]

I think SNP's roll would be the same as CNOOC's roll in Akpo. They will sit back and try and control where and who the oil/gas/condensate is sold to, specfically to them. SNP has not had a lot of deep water experiance and Total's methods are considered cutting edge. JMHO, but I think SNP has had Total helping with the analysis of the first five wells, either as a consultant in the original analysis or as a reviewer after SNP's analysis. I don't pretend to know what they found down there, but we have been told it wasn't what they expected, how good this is we don't know yet.
My belief is that it wasn't totally bad or SNP would have walked instead of asking for extensions. Again, my belief is that SNP was unsure of just what they found, but that it wasn't totally bad or fantastically good, but they are not ready to spend more money till they figure out exactly where and how to do it.
In comes Total, with new methods and knowledge, information gained at Akpo and elsewhere, but especially Akpo, something like 30 KM away in the same formations. Egina and Egina South are right next door. They have the team that just developed Akpo and now need a new chalange. Starting with block 1 and hopefully encompassing the whole north end of the JDZ.
They have some problems to deal with first, block 5 & 6 arbitration, control of block 7, 8 &9. the 25% acreage release, minor players, etc. I don't think we will see anythink fast.
Also, I believe we will see SEO make a move of the FAB stock before anything actually happens, that 8% of the stock represents 20% of his holdings and I don't think he wants anybody else to profit off of stock that used to be his. I think he knows enough of what is going on that he knows when he will have to comit his assets to get it back before we see something happen. Why would anybody buy it back at this time, when ERHC is selling for .11 to .12? I think a move on this stock is going to be the first indicator things are happening. I also believe, in my little conspiracy driven world, that the FAB stock was dropped from the SEC filings to make it disappear. If SEO buys it back himself it will raise his ownership from 43% to 51 again, but SEO is suppose to be the big front man, I am sure he can find someone to front for him or his secret partners.