Replies to post #8264 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[bellweather1]

I'm sure Blade does know that-

but more significantly, as many of us have suggested, not only will these results be positive, but more positive(and perhaps significantly so)than they were per this backdated abstract, because superior efficacy in certain cohorts(of STS) are only likely to show their effect on the overall numbers toward the end of the trial.

Bottom Line, regardless of how marginal our enthusiasm for Rida's prospects(compared to a truly targeted drug like Pona) may be, the final results (perhaps a 3 month OS advantage with much more in some STS cohorts) will be more than enough to get approval, with requisite milestones and royalties, etc.

And despite all my reservations to the contrary, Harvey will, apparently, turn out looking like a pretty smooth operator in the final analysis.

[DewDiligence]

You're not going to get a true number until the final person in the study dies. And that could literally be 20 years from now.

Actually, the OS hazard ratio and p-value become set in stone not on the final death, but rather when all remaining patients in the trial belong to the same arm. This distinction has no practical consequence for investors, of course.