Replies to post #120285 on Biotech Values

[BTH]

I'm guessing it will. If you assume there is a subset that responds to the drug and has a pronounced survival advantage, then immature data will likely look worse than mature data.

Wholeheartedly agree.

Some of the sub-types have been shown to increase PFS by many months (and not weeks, as in some other sub-types).

I'm really looking forward to the subset analysis. I believe leiomyosarcoma will show a huge improvement in PFS, with osteosarcoma showing little at all.

[DewDiligence]

OS HR for ARIA’s Rida improved 0.92-->0.88 from the date of the ASCO abstract submission (#msg-63300650) to the cutoff for the ASCO presentation itself:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Merck-and-ARIAD-Announce-bw-3258371529.html?x=0&.v=1

Follow-up for OS is ongoing, and the current trend favors ridaforolimus: results at the most recent data cut-off (386 OS events) showed a median OS of 21.4 months for the oral ridaforolimus group compared to 19.2 months for the placebo arm (hazard ratio=0.88, p=0.2256).

Thus, the OS HR is closing in on the 0.85 number previously posted as the threshold for what I consider a strong outcome to support the statisg data on the primary endpoint of PFS (#msg-60136247).