Replies to post #8209 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[BTH]

I believe there will be an increase in that number as well.

There seems to be no doubt in Merck's mind about filing an NDA over the past couple of months - this is in contrast to their wording earlier on (as if they were "waiting" to see what the trend, or OS, or secondary endpoints were worthy of an NDA filing).

To me, it is clear.. 6 months ago there was a "trend" (2 month survival benefit, with only half the survival events triggered). If we know what we know about a few subsets (and Carolyn Boone's), we know that Rida can and does work greatly in SOME people, and I believe those people and subsets are going to greatly increase the OS benefit and with an additional 6 months of data, we should see the trend continuing to increase. Hell, if OS was the primary endpoint, and the endpoint needed a complete trigger until the final event, we could literally be talking 5, 10, 15 years. The trend is favorable, curves are widening. OS is a benefit.