I share your cautiousness. For me it remains the same story: the Tech incumbents, which are seeing an erosion of their CAP, will continue to presure this market.
The most two likely outcomes IMO for the next 6 months: -we move sideways and trade between 1850-2050 -we continue the downtrend since Jnauary towards 1750
Wall of worry is usually good. It is these 1%+ up moves that we have been have a need for additional backtesting to confirm an overall bullish trend vs alternative of plain old vanilla pre expiry whipsawing.
FED is going to pump more liquidity if necessary if more credit downgrades come. Still investing straight long in quality names like ADSK ADBE DNA. I got the feeling that RIMM going to plummet sometime in the foreseeable future but still playing it from both sides with short options but always taking any bankable gains from the short PUTs rather then assume options would expire worthless.