* where price is now testing, is one idea for the level of failed horizontal intraday support based on the 2007 to 2008 price action...other failure levels could also be identified from that time period but this $62.67 looks relevant enough to matter since it also became firm resistance for later bounce attempts in 2008
close-up version of the NYA weekly closes chart shown in Post #259
* $8071 - the potential "must-hold" horizontal support based on the prior pattern of weekly closes is being tested from above for the first time in several weeks today, June 8th
* while price remains below the $8200 level represented by the red line, a near-term bearish trading bias is most suitable
(an NYA 60min closes chart follows this weekly closes chart shown below)
NYA 60min closes chart, with USO price line shown in brown as an overlay behind the NYA price action -
* horizontal price levels marking each new low in the current declining sequence have been marked through July 18, 2011
* today, July 18th, the SPX tested and held support at the April intraday low, and closed today very near the February and the April daily close low (the NYA is negatively divergent from this SPX price structure)
* the RSI-8 level marked with red just above the 30 level was the first bounce high in today's sequence for the RSI recovery back above the 30 level
* the NYA price action and the SPX-EW price action both reside below the 60min 200-period moving average which failed to hold today, July 18th ...bulls will eventually require confirmation by price action advancing back above this 200-period moving average, and a trader must be vigilant about potential fake recovery bounces which fail to achieve consecutive 60min closes back above the 200-period moving average
chart #2 - NYA daily with a plot of the 3, 5 and 10-day moving averages for:
updated NYA monthly chart since August, 2009, with SPX, INDU, and USO (oil)-
this chart #1 is followed by three SPX weekly charts accompanied by a total of 15 sector ETF's vs. their 10-week ema ... these four charts are meant to be interpreted by using all the data presented within the entire group of charts:
*** as of November 11, 2011, the NYA price action is like the RUT in that it displays a noticeable level of negative divergence:
1. from the other indices,
2. from the oil price action, and
3. from the price action by some of the sector ETF's (keep in mind that selected RUT components have an influence on the group of NYSE Common stocks within the NYA index)
#1 - weekly closes in histogram format for the NYSE Composite Index
$8071.43 = the inflection level from the prior price action, and this level now represents an important resistance level the bulls want to see become support in the future
* the weekly 34,55,1 MACD is just now breaking above the zero line, as of February 14, 2012 ... and the bulls want to see this MACD continue to advance
#2 - daily price bars for the NYSE Composite Index with relevant intermarket relationsips
#3 - cumulative NYAD,
and at the bottom of the chart are the plots of the 20-day and 8-day sma for the daily NYAD
$NYA monthly chart with the OIH price line overlay -
monthly since 1997
OIH has yet to violate its dividend-adjusted 2017 monthly close low
* vigilance watch for what occurs if there is a future bounce up to the $NYA monthly 15 simple moving average shown in green
April 2017 chart comments -
the most recent negative divergence by the OIH price action vs. the generally rising NYSE Composite index price action is noteworthy and requires future vigilance
intended to track the overall performance of U.S.-listed companies involved in oil services to the upstream oil sector, which include: oil equipment, oil services, or oil drilling --- Business Cycle & Sector Rotation:
Stage 4 marks a period of full expansion. Both stocks and commodities are rising, but bonds turn lower because the expansion increases inflationary pressures.
Interest rates start moving higher to combat inflationary pressures.
Stage 5 marks a peak in economic growth and the stock market. Even though the expansion continues, the economy grows at a slower pace because rising interest rates and rising commodity prices take their toll. Stocks anticipate a contraction phase by peaking before the expansion actually ends
Commodities remain strong and peak after stocks
chart #1 -
chart #2 -
CRB index and $NYA daily chart -
* the CRB and $NYA printed lower long-term price highs in September and October 2018, from which their price action has steadily declined once Jerome Powell, FED Chairman, spoke those words - "continue indefinitey" in an extensive interview by Judy Woodruff, which was broadcast on television
* $NYA has yet to close below its March 2018 daily close price low
"I attempted to choose weekly EMAs that would approximate the relationship of the 50EMA and 200EMA on a daily chart. I found that the 17EMA and 43EMA did the job pretty well."
$NYA weekly chart with the 17,43,1 MACD -
* the MACD trend has been pointing Down since early 2018 except for a 3-month up sloping period ending in late September / early October 2018
** vigilance watch for a potential future zero line cross by the weekly 17,43,1 MACD, though the most relevant observation in 2018 is the dominant declining trend by this MACD
the future bullish case depends on this MACD reversing direction on a lasting basis
** vigilance watch the 3-year moving average below the $NYA price action ( 3 times 52 weeks = 156 week simple moving average )
revised $NYA weekly chart with Carl Swenlin's weekly MACD settings:
$12,048.66 is the early February 2018 low and the prior lowest 2018 correction low, where price action is now hovering and undecided
chart #1
chart #2 - $NYA Monthly
* keeping alive the potential for a bounce with probable staying power requires $NYA price action to remain above its monthly 15,2 lower Bollinger Band on a lasting basis
3 weekly and monthly $NYA with revised settings now displayed on all price-related indicators, updated for the Friday October 26, 2018 close
good luck to all independent-minded technical traders, and thank you sincerely to Gray at IHub whose $PX chart set is shown in the sticky posts at the top of this forum
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
