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Replies to post #137024 on Tornado Alley (PROG)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.htmlZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 161652
NCZ000-SCZ000-170200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NC AND FAR ERN
SC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WITH SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES
AND A POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AND
FAR ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
FAR ERN SOUTH CAROLINA
ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...NUMEROUS SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM ERN-SRN VA SWD ACROSS PARTS NC AND SC WITH A
SEVERE THREAT ALSO OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN GA.
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE GULF STATES ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS...A BAND OF FAST JET STREAM FLOW WILL SWEEP
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A STREAM OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINA...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OHIO VALLEY STORM SYSTEM.
THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WINDS...DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..BROYLES.. 04/16/2011
$$
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html (Mesoscale Discussions at/via http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ ]SPC AC 161915
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
NC...FAR SERN VA...EXTREME NERN SC...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF ERN SC...CNTRL AND
ERN NC...SERN VA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN GA NWD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...
...ERN CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA...
SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES TO
RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ERN SC INTO NC
AND VA.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING MESOLOW OVER N CNTRL
NC...BUT SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS WERE OBSERVED FROM SC NWD INTO
MD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CELLS OVER N CNTRL NC SHOW INTENSE COUPLETS
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SRN VA WITH TIME. THUS...WILL NUDGE HIGH RISK
AREA A BIT FARTHER N INTO SERN VA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DEVELOPING
AREA AND FURTHER ORGANIZATION.
RADAR AT 1915Z SHOWS CLASSIC SUPERCELL WITH INTENSE TORNADIC COUPLET
HEADING TOWARDS RALEIGH METRO AREA WITH POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING
EFFECTS.
TO THE S...OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FROM CNTRL NC
INTO SC...WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS...ALONG WITH VERY
STRONG SHEAR. EXPECT STORMS ALONG THE ENTIRE LINE TO INCREASE IN
SEVERITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
CHANGE IN STORM CHARACTER WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES OVER THE HIGH RISK AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 458...457...456 AS
WELL AS FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR THE HIGH RISK AREA.
..JEWELL.. 04/16/2011
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0150.html [images will update]SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES
INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SOUTH
HILL VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT...AND THE S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH NC
INTO VA. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR IS MOIST AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-450+
M2/S2 AND ANTICIPATED DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGESTS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...MEAD
