Replies to post #504 on holygrail to the stock market-win>90%

[webx99]

RE: double check your spreadsheet.

I assume the formula is correct, and we are talking about how to intrepret the results.

I'll try to walk thru the way I see the results. As you mentioned, we'll use line 7 of this spreadsheet:

https://spreadsheets2.google.com/ccc?key=tIAljT2xmkKr23UVnDJUSWQ&authkey=CJCWi_0B#gid=0

If there is selling of options, that means three things:
1) People are closing out options they bought earlier
2) or people are selling options to earn a premium.
3) Prices of the options will fall and may be worth less than theoretical value.

(A) If it is calls being sold, this indicates traders expect the market to go down.

(B) If it is puts being sold, this indicated traders expect the market to go up.

Am I right so far?

Looking at line 7, the calls are 9% undervalued and the puts are 4.5% undervalued both due to selling.

Since the calls are more undervalued than the puts, they are being more agressively sold. Referring to sentence (A) above, they expect the market to go down...so this is bearish.

You stated "the one that is being sold the least aggressively is the option to buy. " That is correct. In this case puts are the ones to buy because the market is bearish.

Are we on the same page after all?

Thanks for the feedback...keep the comments coming.

Rick