usually takes brokers a few days to get shares, some have em on xdate, some may even get em after the close on the paydate, but most will wait 3-5 days. so you're kinda stuck. if peop come in and start buying on the xdate, chances are real good it will go up. and, yes, you're right, it will trade where ever the market decides.
the big issue right now, is we don't know what the xdate is. once FINRA sets it, it's on. from past experiance, when ever the company sets a "paydate(4/15)" FINRA, I think just outa spite, will set the xdate so that paydate don't work.LOL. we'll see. got a week and a half to go yet.
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