Yes, but even those "hairy hair cuts" are interrupted by strong counter move. Remember the three phases nassacre, each with a one to three days interruption on the way up, these run up where extremely fruitful.
I already have a preliminary "road map" for the first half next year, and it has three playable mini bottoms (don't hold me to that yet, but if the scenario evolves as expected, namely a run to 1619 by 1/15/03), then I have a first six weeks leg down of about 300 Naz pints (nominal 1326) by 2/26 give or take 2 trading days on each of these dates, a counter trend rally, looking like the real thing again, taking out 1450 by 3/12, retreating to just 1360/80 and then another run to just under 1520 by 3/26. The next leg down to around 1220 takes until about 4/18-25 time frame and then the last leg (I don't have yet a date and a target on that bounce's top) to a low of 950 or so by mid July 2003 (nominal low date 7/16).
None of these are written in stone mind you, this is the initial "map" my system has come up with for next year, providing that the rally into January does bring with it more than 160 new highs on the Naz and with a volume peak under 2.3 B shares. If the internals on the next run improve beyond that, I may have to scrap the current road map and replace it with a target high for next year around 1940, maybe even higher. Right now, I feel pretty sure, however, that we are going to get that run into 1600 by mid January with "poor internals" and that will seal the fate of the market next year. What Bush does with a possible stimulus package may change the whole picture, though.
As for using shorting funds, by playing only the long side, when I am wrong, I am wrong once, if I try and be cute and play the short side, if I am wrong, I would be wrong twice, first for not being long, second by losing my capital being on the wrong short side. So far, playing only the long side has been quite fruitful during the last three years, despite the miserable market performance. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Zeev
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