Replies to post #211 on holygrail to the stock market-win>90%

[Ninja7]

Thanks for the feedback. Here are some answers/comments...

I used April expirations which were ~4 weeks to expiration. My option and underlying stock prices at entry were the prices of each at the end of day for the respective earnings day.

I guess you can skew in different ways. I originally just considered buying more/less of put/calls to create a bias, but moving strike prices around would also make sense. I probably should have done a downward bias on WAG and especially on BBY given the charts for both. I went in bias free on both unfortunately, but my positions were very tiny. I only used real money simply because I tend to pay more attention and remember the lessons better if I have a bit of skin in the game (but not enough on these that it would have really hurt if they completely failed). I also don't go in unless I at least think I have some clue on what I should be doing.

I'm still relatively new to options, but I've been reading some on volatility and looking at skews in put vs. call implied volatility to predict direction as well as find better deals. So I can see how not accounting for volatility could really burn you. It seems that Lerogee (the guy who started this board) goes through a similar process with actual vs. theoretical option prices to detect bias and good/bad deals--at least that's how I understand his approach.

Is Peter Shultz worth checking out?