GFRE - PDG, many thanks for the info (and warning) wrt GFRE. I must admit that I don't understand a lot about what is going on with HAP. Why would they dump this huge quantity at a PE<4? I hope they can't be compared to the Lin brothers.. And looking at insiders transactions, can it be true that HAP obtained a bundle of shares for just 12 cents each?
I have three specific questions re fundamentals which I hope you could give your views on:
- Bromine production was 34.672 tn in 2010 against 34.930 in 2009, basically flat. But it seems to me that production in Q4 2010 was only 6.095 tn, down 41% from Q3 2010 and 20% from Q4 2009. And this in spite of having more wells of course.
- For 2011 they expect to 'maintain' the utilization rate at 65-75%. I think the rate in 2009/2010 was over 80% or so; why the drop? Considering capacity expansion to 46.300 tn (+ 2011 acq.), production is expected to be lower in 2011 than in 2009 and 2010? All this is compensated of course by hugely higher bromine prices, so I'm not particularly worried. But why don't/can't they make the most of current high demand and prices by ramping up production to the max?
- They expected last year to increase revenues from chemical products. This has hardly been the case. I assume these products are derivatives of bromine and prices would be substantially higher than one year ago. If that is true, sales volume was not really much higher in 2010 than in 2009 (and particularly in Q4 2010).
Also, do you have any new info on their waste water plans? I think they invested quite a bit and had high expectations, but I can't seem to find any concrete info.
I have quite a large position in GFRE and would appreciate any info you may be able to provide. TIA
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