S2R, I agree. Krom, I think you have gotten onto a path of thinking that is too exclusive.
As for the JDA, there is the "heavy" Nigerian factor which can be significantly influenced by SEO. The JDA will be only as tough as Nigeria. Nigeria will hear SEO's voice. STP can whimper all they want but I will bet on 60% versus 40% every time. Just like I will vote on SEO's 41% everytime because I know the probability of him getting the other 10% is too likely.
Another factor I do not follow in your postulation is the fact that if the operator fails to act and forfeits its rights it and all the junior partners lose their rights to the block. Where is the legal language that says all interested parties suffer the same fate, i.e. lose their rights if the operator fails to perform?
Then there is the Addax factor. Addax, for some time, had been pouring over their blocks to determine the points where the potential for commercial finds had the highest probability. I can not envision SNP not taking Addax's advice as to where to poke the holes. Addax may have been proven wrong in their choices, but I do not envision a frenzied SNP playing pin the tail on the donkey. Now where Addax said drill may have been a dud, but that does not support the thinking that the preceding analysis and drilling was done in some kine of haphazard manner.
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