Replies to post #26016 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[swampdonkey]

Rato as usual a very well articulated and persuasive post however you havnt been proven correct yet although im sure you will argue to the contrary.
Im not saying your wrong, you raise some cardinal points however im still confident that fat lady is singing for a long time yet.....

[Traderfan]

Rato, regarding strange things or possible red flags. You already mentioned quite a few. I agree here. But there were many many more. Each one of them is not too obvious but combined they started to make less sense each week when I analyzed the situation a few hours each day.

I get asked a lot by PM why I went to a rather neutral position lately. Just start with some very obvious things like FMCN buys a stake in VISN, the absolute ridiculous bad money losing company in the china ad space. Why would they buy a stake in VISN if they can buy a stake in CCME? That makes no damn friggin sense. Of course I got all kinds of answers from the longs here but these were all far from reality. If FMCN would have paid enough for a 10% stake in CCME, the company would have never said no. That's just nonsense. People argue that CCME doesn't need the money but of course when they let in Starr for 20% below the market price then they took the money with joy. That financing was the first major "hmmm" for me. Of course they said they need the money for an aquisition but we all know they never ever did anything with the money.

That's why I say bring in FMCN or another public company to buy a stake here at these levels and we can talk. Ain't going to happen I guess.

The sale of Lin was a big red flag overall for me. Why? Because it's basically IMPOSSIBLE to have a better investment out there waiting for your money than to invest into CCME at 9 (when he sold shares) while the business was bringing in such numbers. That's insane. What did they say? A strange investment in chile is a better buy for his money than CCME at 9 while they are poised to bring in close to 3 bucks in 2010 with yoy growth of 100%? Hardly.

I think these are reasons to get very cautious and these are not even close to all reasons.

[saltvine_00]

Didn't you buyback into ccme after the global hunter report?

[Texbanker]

I recommend this post.

[bullmarkets]

Red Flags and Dissent Posting Area on I-Box

This is exactly the quality of post that meets what I recently defined as "peer-reviewed dissent" i.e. a short opinion. Frankly iHub policy should have this available in the iBox for all SEC reporting securities under discussion.

For example, I would like to add a reference to Rato's post to the iBox. I left area for two other quality posts. Send nominations to Moderator or an Assistant Moderator. Mods should make efforts to be fair in the subjective area of evaluation.

Note: I am deliberately not using the word "short" or "long"; this is not the "Short Box". The area is to give some opportunity to reference red flags, i.e. things to consider that are question marks that are unique and specific to the company. This will also help people who trade evaluate the company both ways and provide info useful in calculating whether to hedge.

Not a one-liner like Seasaw or Don Monfort would write, and not a list of thoughtless bashing, but a qualitatively well- written thoughtful expression that names red flags and discusses issues with the company by someone who has been posting for quite a while like Rato. (Previous sentence is not a sentence, but you get the point).

This may not be popular, certainly not before recent events, but it is healthy to have a marketplace of ideas and would set this board head and shoulders above others.

I am willing to post other stay away/ red flag arguments too if they are of this quality, comprehensive and well structured. We have plenty of long arguments on a stock. A dissent area also signals a company that pays attention what problems longs take seriously. This is healthy for a company that cares about shareholders.

Those who might not like this can look at everything else on the ibox instead. As the Supreme Court held in Cohen v. California, 403 U.S. 15 (1971) "Those in the Los Angeles courthouse could effectively avoid further bombardment of their sensibilities simply by averting their eyes". In this case a man was arrested in a courthouse for wearing a shirt that said, "F*ck the Draft" (except there was no "*" for the letter u).

Source: http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?navby=case&court=us&vol=403&invol=15

So I am asking your support to extend leeway here to add the post and I'll leave it to Majik to figure out how to make the area look nice. If there's an uproar, ask Brrp and I'll abide by his ruling as he is the Moderator and, as an Assistant, I am at his service.

-Andrew

[bullmarkets]

Rato: I hope this message and cautionary thoughtful messages by Traderfan helped protect some longs from taking too big a stake in CCME. Credit where credit is due. I went much more in on the final Ping Luo Report. Lesson learned.

-Andrew