Replies to post #116142 on Biotech Values

[bladerunner1717]

McBio,

Are you surprised that there isn't more Street interest in IMMU, since they have a lupus drug in Phase III, partnered with UCB?


"UCB has initiated a Phase III program for epratuzumab in lupus in which 2 trials, EMBODY(TM) 1 and EMBODY(TM) 2, will each enroll approximately 780 patients with moderate to severe systemic lupus erythematosus. (Please refer to the Company's press release at www.immunomedics.com/news_pdf/2010_PDF/PR12142010.pdf for more information)."


IMMU has a market cap of approximately $256 million. Their finances are in terrible shape and the management team seems rather iffy, BUT if the Phase III proves successful, the share price would increase dramatically, don't you think? I'm no expert, but I've read some reports that say that IMMU/UCB's drug is better that HGSI's drug which, I realize, is unpartnered. Of course, UCB/IMMU is way behind HGSI in development, but Bynlysta's results didn't strike me as extraordinary. The market for a lupus drug can certainly accommodate two new drugs.

Any opinions. anyone?


Bladerunner

[mcbio]

Shares may gain about $2 on a positive FDA ruling, RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Yee said. FDA approval will attract investors who avoided the shares when Benlysta's fate remained uncertain, he said.

If that statement is anywhere close to accurate, then there's no way in hell I'd play HGSI in front of the FDA's decision on Benlysta. Do you really want to risk what would in all likelihood be substantial downside if any hiccup with the FDA for a measly $2 increase? That seems absurd to me.