Replies to post #33903 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[ls7550]

Far from perfect, but using Simba's backtest spreadsheet http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2520 with allocations of 25% Small Cap Value, 7.5% gold, 67.5% 5 year Treasury wouldn't be too far adrift perhaps from that allocation/strategy, and which yielded yearly total gains of :

1972 8.66%
1973 1.72%
1974 4.47%
1975 16.54%
1976 21.49%
1977 7.81%
1978 10.30%
1979 20.78%
1980 9.83%
1981 7.35%
1982 27.55%
1983 13.13%
1984 8.30%
1985 21.56%
1986 13.34%
1987 1.58%
1988 10.06%
1989 11.57%
1990 0.72%
1991 19.69%
1992 11.80%
1993 14.88%
1994 -3.55%
1995 20.22%
1996 6.20%
1997 12.29%
1998 5.39%
1999 -1.56%
2000 14.50%
2001 8.55%
2002 7.87%
2003 12.33%
2004 8.52%
2005 4.42%
2006 8.58%
2007 7.30%
2008 1.35%
2009 8.25%
2010 13.36%

AIM'ing the SCV stock might reasonably add a bit too that 10% annualised (5.36% real).

I could quite comfortably live with those returns and infrequent worse year losses. Even more if adjacent years to those losses were relatively good years as they have been in the past.