About how many Angels on the pin of a head. . .ehhh. . I mean on the head of a pin. . .it is more interesting to ask how many there could fit on the point a of pin!
As long as Angels and the point of a pin are not defined one keeps bashing it about in an Babylonian Mess. It could be that we are roaming in a labyrinth that keeps changing it form and the place of the position we seek to find keeps shifting
Ref:
John Q. Public" investor is that 50/50 might be a reasonable starting point.
This is NOT what I read in what Clive is writing. . . This advice is always been a "reasonable" guideline for cases in which a bimbo from a forest in Africa one day takes his monkey to invest for him. . .the monkey being no smarter than his master.
It is like asking a woman
"What is bigger, an elephant or the Moon?"
Except for a few smart ones a woman would answer: "The Elephant of course. . . even a child can see that. .it’s plain as day".
I am not addressing what monkeys will do. I am addressing the question as to what stock prices do any given period. An analysis of historical data reveals that. . .prices move because of market dynamics. .what people do and think and what happens in the world, and if there is turmoil or not and when people get assassinated, and what not.
These things made the historical price pattern develop in a specific way.
The prices of tomorrow and next week and next years will develop in a similar way. One thing is for sure: over 5 years there is again new data that will be called “historical data” and THAT can be analysed also and new optimised starting CERs can be found.
The central question is not what ignorant people might reasonably use for starting CER for a new AIM Portfolio. . .The question is IF all stock prices from the past, are used for optimising the starting CER for a particular time period in the past, then that would mean that if that CER would have been used it would have given Optimum Yield...and if you do that for all stocks you will get a 100 or a 1000 or a 1000000 different SERs as optimised values fo0r as many AIMs that would have given maximised yields. . .that is beyond question. The question is now that if you average these million CERS that have come out of an analysis of factual data related to WHAT HAPPENED:
Will that Averaged CER be a 50/50 CER ?
That question can not be answered unless there is other experimental data that confirms the speculation that the answer will be 50/50. As long as that experimental data is not available one can not assert that the optimum Starting CER for any AIM Start-Up is 50-50.
In the same that it is true that one can not predict from statistical data what a particular stock price will do one can not predict that the Optimum CER for an AIM Start up will be 50-50 unless one has information available that developing reality(process) are set by a deterministic mechanism AND that the details of that mechanism are fully known.
From this I state that in this issue one can not logically use a “presumed” mechanism for price development to predict that stock price will move so that for new AIM start-up a 50/50 Starting CER is an optimum stating value.
If that is so then also historical process used for optimising starting CERs should demonstrably show that the average of the optimised CERs is also a 50-50. . and with Optimised values I do not mean Reasonable values.
As to your last point im regards to if you mist something I would say NO.
And in regards to the outcome of the number crunchings you refer to you are sitting next to me on my bandwagon! Its outcome is not predictable. . .if it were then number crunching would not be necessary.
As far as I already have stated my self, the fact shpw that some optmised CERs will be in the range of 80/20 and some might be in the range of 15/85 with a lot of them in between, but this not mean that the average op optimised CERs is 50/50. . .it could well be be that in the limit of almost endless experimentation that the Average optmised CER is 49.67/50.33
Now, THAT would be interesting practical information!
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