Replies to post #23231 on Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[Eric]

A Nostalgic Stroll Down Our Various Qualcomm Message Boards' Memory Lane ...

Come, let's stroll
Stroll across the floor
Come, let's stro-oh-oh-oll
Stroll across the floor
Now turn around, [warrior] baby
Let's stroll once more<

Nostalgia: QCOM Eleven Year Price History from 1998 (Split Adjusted)

Calendar Year    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008  
 =============   =====  ======  ======  ======  ======  ======  ======  ======  ======  ======  ====== 
 High Price       4.21   92.52  100.00   44.69   26.67   27.43   44.99   46.60   53.01   47.72   56.88 
 Low Price        2.36    3.27   25.75   19.16   11.61   14.79   26.67   32.08   32.76   35.23   28.16 
 Year End Price   3.24   88.06   41.09   25.25   18.20   26.97   42.40   43.08   37.79   39.35   35.83

QCOM Stock Splits

==================== 
 08/04: 2-for-1 split 
 12/99: 4-for-1 split 
 05/99: 2-for-1 split 
 02/94: 2-for-1 split

Jeffrey,

<< Such nostalgia, sigh. Ramsey has been gone for longer than he was present, >>

Perhaps we should nostalgacize for a moment and do a sanity check on the statement you made (above) about Ramsey to see whether your math is in error or your facts are. Rather than do it here lets do it over here on what I believe to be the 1st Qualcomm (QCOM) board established on the Internet ...

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=27220431

... although if someone knows of one (on AOL, Raging Bull, or Yahoo, e,g.) established earlier than April 1996 I'd appreciate being so advised.

<< Nokia has squandered, through hubris and miscalculation, that which it once dominated. >>

Spoken like a true cyberwarrior. I think you'll find that upon a legitimate examination of fact that hubris (which exists in any large corporation to some degree) played a relatively small role in Nokia's decline off its outstanding 2007 year when the 1st signs of global recession became evident. Miscalculation certainly and in several regards, but several other factors -- the impact of recession itself which was felt across the industry, the rapid regrowth of the gray market and legitimate market whitebox growth fueled by the MediaTek ecosystem and the Shanzai bandits, its sheer size and share, rapidly changing forex across regions and its impact on intelligent hedging, new entrants and new (and different) ecosystems, underestimation of tasks involved in evolving from a hardware company to a software and services company, etc., etc., etc, -- far outweigh any tinge of hubris.

Expansion of the above is really a subject for a Nokia board rather than this one. I'd be delighted to drill down further on that statement with you on the Nokia board here or on SI should you care to restate on one of those boards.

You'll notice that several of those global recession related factors fueled Qualcomm's retreat to $28.16 in 2008, and its dip again to $31.63 in 2010.

The world's gone a little smartphone whacky, but the two dominant players in tha broad range of mobile wireless devices (Nokia and Samsung) excluding a few who do smartphones only, and the 3 in mobile infra (Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei) were dramatically affected by the recession and on the mobile device side the MediaTek ecosystem -- with MediaTek becoming the largest manufacturer of mobile wireless ICs, albeit and because of very inexpensive ones, in unit terms -- and the Shanzai bandits, impacted not just Nokia and Samsung but also Qualcomm. Inexpensive kit from Huawei (an impressive comer) and ZTE hit Ericsson, Nokia, and Alcatel-Lucent on the infra side.

Nokia is significantly lagging several other players in recovery, and it looks like they could decline further as a result of a dramatic strategic change, before recovery. One could of course bet that they won't recover and those suffering from Nokiaphobia or Europhobia are likely to be inclined to, but when I post about Nokia here, or on other Qualcomm boards. I'm betting that over time they will, and it is with an eye towards what I believe is a very real opportunity for Qualcomm to find their way into Nokia sockets putting the Qualcomm win into the win-win PJ talked about in 2007, and I would bet that PJ feels the same way.

Cheers,

- Eric -