Replies to post #114869 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

it’s unlikely that more than $4/sh of the CVR (including $2/sh of Lemtrada sales milestones) will ever be paid.

For me to be interested in arb'ing the merger (acquisition of the CVR), you would have to be able to buy GENZ for less than 74 with closing of the deal expected in less than one month. Said another way, I would take the CVR's for free but would not pay anything significant for them.

Lentrada is a hail-mary pass, my guess.

ij

[DewDiligence]

Genzyme’s CVRs will soon trade on Nasdaq with the ticker, GCVRZ:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sanofiaventis-Announces-prnews-1137946174.html?x=0&.v=1

[DewDiligence]

SNY offers to repurchase Genzyme CVR’s for $1.50-1.75:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/04/us-sanofi-buyback-idUSBRE88306Y20120904

Although SNY’s buyback price is a premium to the $1.40 price where the Genzyme CVR (ticker: GCVRZ) have been trading lately, it is a small fraction of the $13 potential CVR value attributable to Lemtrada: $1 for FDA approval and $12 for sales-based milestones as detailed in #msg-59975091.

p.s. In the prologue of #msg-59975091, I noted that it was unlikely the Lemtrada portion of the CVR would ever amount to more than $3 (including the $1 for FDA approval).

[DewDiligence]

Lawsuit alleges SNY delayed Lemtrada approval to obviate the need to pay full value for Genzyme-derived CVR:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/10/us-sanofi-genzyme-lawsuit-idUSKCN0SZ02U20151110

Approval-time CVR milestones should be graduated rather than binary, IMO, to avert this kind of disagreement.

[DewDiligence]

SNY settles CVR litigation arising from Genzyme acquisition:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/10/31/1938440/0/en/Sanofi-announces-settlement-agreement-related-to-Contingent-Value-Rights-CVRs-Litigation.html

These cases can take a long time to be resolved!