I'm stoked that this proved to be true. If my old brain cells don't fail me, turnarounds in past semi downturns were always led by memory devices. Do you recall it this way?
No I don't recall it that way but that doesn't prove anything. It's been so long since we've seen a recovery that I forgot the details but it seems to me that the chipset group got wind of it as early as anyone because the boards manufacturers needed the chipsets before the processors, but I guess the same would apply to memory. I'm just happy for some good news.
Not sure flash demand is a leading indicator w/ regard to a demand upturn in the PC market. Different customers and market. The article below may be an indication where the demand is coming from. Sorry if this has been posted before.
Gartner:3rd Quarter Global Mobile Sales 104.3M, Up 7.8% Versus 3rd Quarter '01
Monday November 25, 7:16 pm ET
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Mobile phone sales worldwide in the third quarter of 2002 rose 7.8% from the same period of 2001, signaling that the industry's rebound is well under way, according to Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Inc. .
It said mobile sales to end users in the quarter totaled 104.3 million units. Sales were above expectations and Gartner said it expected demand to continue to rise in the fourth quarter and into next year.
The research and advisory company said it was only the second time third- quarter sales had exceeded 100 million, with demand up compared with the second quarter in every one of the six geographical regions it tracks.
Nokia Corp. for the first time captured more than 50% of total sales for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, helped by strong demand for upmarket handsets in Western Europe.
The 37.4 million phones Nokia sold in the quarter was 13.5% more than in the same quarter of 2001, and meant its market share rose to 35.9% from 34.1% over the same period.
"It's getting to be that Nokia are almost competing with themselves," said Ben Wood, senior analyst for Gartner Dataquest in Europe.
He said Nokia had been helped by the start of a new upgrade cycle in Europe as users moved onto higher-end models with color screens. Many of those now upgrading today bought a Nokia as their first mobile phone during the boom of 2000 and were buying Nokia again, he said.
"This is a sweet spot for replacement," Wood said.
Six months ago Nokia looked to be stalled while Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT - News) , the second-largest player, appeared well-placed with strong sales and products.
However in contrast to Nokia's strong growth, the U.S.-based company saw its sales rise just 2.4% in the quarter compared with the previous third quarter, as its T720 and C330 products were delayed and its key markets of China and the U.S. became uncertain. Gartner said Motorola sold 15 million handsets in the third quarter.
Ann Liang, a Gartner analyst based in Taiwan, said Motorola's best chances to grow its market share were the markets of Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia outside of China that use the technology known as Global System For Mobile Communications, or GSM.
Samsung continued its strong sales growth, with sales rising 52.4% against the previous third quarter to reach 11.06 million, breaking through the 10% market share level for the first time to a market share of 10.6%.
Siemens AG saw sales rise better than the market, rising 12.9% to 8.1 million for a 7.8% market share to keep its fourth place.
The handset joint venture between Sony Corp. and Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson continued its sharp fall. Wood warned that the company was now selling only one million handsets, a quarter more than the sixth-placed player, which he did not name, and was therefore at risk of falling out of the world's top five handset makers.
The venture sold 5 million handsets in the third quarter, 43% less than the 8.8 million Sony and Ericsson sold separately in the previous third quarter. The joint venture's market share of 4.8% compares with the 9.1% the partners enjoyed a year ago, before they merged.
Wood said some smaller players were making strong efforts at improving their position, including Panasonic, a brand of Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. , which Wood said was making headway in Europe.
Wood also said that China's TCL Communication Equipment Co. Ltd. was enjoying powerful sales growth both inside and outside its home market that meant it could finish the year as the first China-based company in the top 10 of handset makers.
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