I am not sure you could even do that kind of calculus. This stock has limited visibility outside the thousand or so people who are invested in it. It trades off confidence in the validity and worth of the patent as well as faith in the BOD, not on any real "market" concepts that I could use to speculate on where things will go after trial.
If the state trial goes bad it I think the SP might drop down a cent or two, but it won't tank unless something goes wrong with the T-Mobile case. Likewise, if the state trial goes well there will be a small surge, but until we get some external interest I don't expect it to go up too much.
I could be wrong, but I think the event that will turn the tables will be a pubic announcement on T-Mobile.
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