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lee kramer

01/27/11 7:28 PM

#668689 RE: fabian #668688

Good thinking Fabian, I like it. May join the CCME parade.
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imp

01/27/11 7:32 PM

#668690 RE: fabian #668688

Thanks fabian, excellent analysis as usual.
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smagli

01/27/11 7:38 PM

#668691 RE: fabian #668688

Nice heads up Sir.
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2r2d2

01/27/11 8:08 PM

#668692 RE: fabian #668688

Large cap Chinese stocks have been underperforming S&P 500 and under pressure for a long time and actually topped out in August of 2009 on fears of higher inflation, monetary tightening and hard landing.

This is most apparent in the chart of $SSEC, which has lower highs and lower lows since then - both weekly and daily chart does not look good. But even $FXI which tracks large cap China stocks listed in Hong Kong also has been practically flat since August 2009, while S&P up substantially since then.

China Small cap etf $HAO looks a bit better, but still up only just about 10% since August 2009.

Other emerging markets also have been generally weak since November 2010 while China is especially weak.

By the way, emerging markets (as well as commodities and commodity stocks) generally made a bear market bottom in late 2008 - in advance of March 2009 bottom in developed markets

Could you comment on this strong headwind and (short squeeze aside) do you expect China small caps to buck the trend and go up even if large caps remain under pressure.





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Montrose51

01/28/11 7:38 AM

#668699 RE: fabian #668688

Fabian,

Interesting scenario you spin. Sounds reasonable and definitely potentially profitable. Could be a great plan to make some bucks here soon (or, I love it when a plan comes together). :)

Thanks!

Montrose
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Taxmantoo

01/28/11 10:01 AM

#668723 RE: fabian #668688

How much of a factor were wounded shorties in SHZ's run from 0.90 to 11.00?