Replies to post #11519 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[nsomniyak]

Someone mentioned that there was pretty high options volume in CCME calls today.

As you might expect, there was volume concentrated in the Feb 22.5 - volume is almost always concentrated in the front month, at-or-just-out-of-the-money calls.

It seems to me that if I were short enough shares that covering the short would move the market, I would buy calls BEFORE I covered the short.

I don't think we have seen call buying in ehough volume to materially offset the short position. I haven't run the analysis but I doubt that the entire open interest in ALL calls is enough to offset the short position (and that would assume that all calls were held solely to hedge a short position, and that none were pure long-side leveraged speculation, which is clearly false).

Anyway - long way around to saying we probably should watch the volume in out of the money calls as a leading indicator for short covering and we haven't seen enough of the former to suggest the latter is well underway...

[viking86]

Fi: can you pls repost your predictive chart (maybe with Day1-7 closing prices in one color and next 7 days in another one)? Some thought that was wishful thinking when it first came out but after today... ?