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Replies to #20211 on lowtrade

lowtrade

01/22/11 9:05 PM

#20231 RE: Horns in ATX #20211

IBM chart eval

First thing I want to cover is your chart selections. TURN OFF log scale and landscape. This destorts the chart, look at the chart below!!!

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Common are always closed.
They occur with a one day pop, usually, and the lack of a second day continuation, shows why they fill! There is NO real emotion.

Breakaway are usually closed over time. You see them in a multiday emotion run or walkdown, where the stock price is fluxing around over several months. (trending or channeling) They normally occur during chart pattern moves. (like triangles, double bottoms & the like) And the following retail mindset returns to logic, and fills the gap with the retrace.

Runaway are often the "few" that don't fill. Or if they do, it takes so long for them to fill, you don't look back that far to see the gap fill at all! LOL The difference with these and Breakaway gaps are, these are seen in climbing stock patterns, not fluxing. Retail is continuously positive or negative in a climb or walkdown. And a huge one day emotion spike doesn't warrant a price correction, because the mindset changed completely! Basically every thing just continues, lower!

Exhaustion Gaps are rarely seen. They happen at the end of a move. And show the retail mindset has reached a enough is enough point.
Worriers have been expecting a turn too long, they have a concerned trigger finger, creating a rush out the door on the first sign of any weakness, and sell momo takes over. The next day others, which weren't worried, see this and can't decide to agree or not. The PPs swings large. Then everyone just gives up.
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The whole thing starts with a channel and breakaway gap. The last gap could be another breakaway, but runaway fits better, due to the pattern being complete with volume surge and pattern break climb.