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rru2s

01/17/11 1:10 PM

#68692 RE: Shengli #68678

Financier's argument is a short-term force/focus. Recall last spring everyone one parroting a gargantuan bubble burst.

This is part of a 4 to 6 month shorting cycle - of course they say China is headed off the cliff of death right now, but in 4 to 6 months the market will bottom out and they will quietly switch horses and go long in their positions once again.

All the hedge funds associated with big investment firms follow the same M.O. - they wait until the Chinese government starts announcing concerns with their economy, such as property prices and inflation, next they place their short bets, and then start producing article after article to spin the negativity like crazy from every possible angle -- extrapolating a potential huge crash in China's economy resulting from the interest rate increases, a real estate bubble, empty cities, and a propped-up government-fueled growth.

They keep the negative spin going as long as possible until the market exhibits a nearly flat bottom for a couple months. They profit from their short positions, then go long, during a brief period where there is a complete lull in the news - nothing positive or nothing negative. Then they start the cycle all over again.

This is no end of the world, but depending upon how many big firms go short, it can cause several months of pain. In the long run, it's just a few months blip on the charts. Economic growth is there and will continue to be there. Nothing about their economy indicates it is entirely based on unsustainable policies or fake growth data. Does anyone even realize how many million-plus population cities are in China? Only a select few locations have seen a glut of new construction and a low occupancy rate.