Replies to post #112661 on Biotech Values

[Shengli]

All i have to say is be careful when everyone starts heading to the exit at the same time.
Greed is keeping everyone in for that last gap up . Cash is king . I lost 70% in 2000 in my trading accounts. Last year i made 150% in my trading accounts . This year i lost 33 % and have slowly made it back to even. I am about 70% cash . We may see 20% upside but we are so overdue for a big correction.

[mauser96]

http://stockchartist.blogspot.com/2011/01/investor-sentiment-and-market-direction.html

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/6/bullish-sentiment-down-but-still-lofty.html

a problem is that a peak can only be determined in retrospect. How high is high?

It should be kept in mind that sentiment indicators are more useful at picking bear extremes than bull extremes. Fear responses are hard wired into humans- the fight /flight response is physical as well as mental. Greed is far less powerful.

I'm more inclined in the short term to use momentum for timing. Even though signals always lag they are clear cut.

[DewDiligence]

The fact that investor sentiment has reached levels of extreme bullishness and complacency usually seen at market tops has been well publicized for a couple of months.

It depends on which portion of the market you’re talking about. I challenge you name a stock among those listed in my iHub profile that has been the target of “extreme bullishness.”