From what I gather second hand, J Spear was a sharp guy, but somewhat manic in his feeling about HDY the co./stock. js scared folks out of the stock at the bottoms from what i've gathered...his name doesn't come up much any longer as his fans must be feeling some serious sellers remorse! I learned he was one of the ultimated contrarian indicators...when js was most concerned, scared etc...it was time to reload...sell something and buy even more HDY! LOL. That was then, this is now. BR imo will turn HDY into the next big player offshore w africa. HDY can and likely will be a powerhouse. No need to be greedy though, things can go wrong, why not pull out the original investment and ride free.
my POV is what is...coming from someone who's been swing trading it for years...now trying to break the habit and ride long term on a nice core position. Strongest possible hold, so long as you can stomache huge drawdowns....
Once in for the long term free ride after swing trading the volatility, each stock is yet another long term hold, one of many dozens. Although in my case, HDY is a long term favorite and bigger %. Riding stocks with amazing upside on "other people's money" is the ideal. Bottom line imo...we have a speculative $6 stock that is possibly way undervalued based on what china or whomever would pay for our concession right now...and while any stock can go to zero for a 100% loss, HDY could go up 1000%++ from here within 3 years or so. It's not easy to find opportunities like this, blessed by a co. like Blackrock. 100% loss of other people's money vs 10000s% upside for me...what's not to love about that.
I cashed out of some HDY swing trade shares close to $2 (pre Blackrock) after a gap up and just missed out on reloading since it didn't quite fill the gap up. Stupid maybe but I was way overweight, and I had been trading it successfully at under .40 and .30 too, so those were big % gains used to reduce risk via diversification. I'll continue to make lots of mistakes. No looking back, no time for over analyzing. Diversify, diversify and diversify some more. If this year is good, maybe in 250 stocks by 2012?
I've been doing some small time tinkering in gold jr's... got more than a double on one and took free stock. got another and am waiting for a news spike and a free ride there too. one of three is way down and looks like a scam. whoops. $2000 gold and I'll be happy with several modest positions in the precious metals area. My financial junk I was swing trading on small stakes trades during the meltdown is becoming more valuable now... GE, AMTD, ETFC, C, freddie/fannie, etc. Looking strong and many expect financials to outperform this year. 3 more years and some of these will be 10 and 20 baggers on other people's money.
Yes, $100 HDY is pure speculation, just like when I was pounding the table for folks to buy it at every low. Facts? Ha, $150/B oil either will or won't become a fact. HDY future proven reserves either will or won't become a fact. How many billions of barrels and at what valution per barrel? 4 Billion proven at $20 per barrel value in two years?! Imagine the % gains in HDY, if it evades being taken over? One guy has for some time been calling for $10 cash + $10 in the aquirer's stock for each HDY share as the takeover target price. If so, I'll just have to be happy with that and hope the aquirer's stock has considerable upside, or I'd dump at least half of it. It's fun to ponder on assumptions. Enjoy the game.
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