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01/06/11 12:21 PM

#4673 RE: DonShimoda #4671

Well the Endometrial Phase 2 results were positive and they only showed a PFS of "weeks" (versus months), so, if Ariad + Merck meet the 33% PFS in "weeks" then it's up to ODAC (as JEFF said yesterday) to determine whether or not "weeks" versus "months" is a successful outcome.

As someone said yesterday (PGS?), Tarceva showed "weeks" PFS in NSCLC in their P3 study and that was acceptable to ODAC.

I'm not really sure ANY of the analysts EVER thought the degree of difference between the two arms was in "months". I don't think I have ever seen an analyst say that - I'm not even sure Berger has ever stated that. The only times I have seen it in "months" (several several months, that is) is some of the analysis by posters here and on other threads which are likely magnitudes off (if it was that much of a difference, the second interim would have stopped the trial).

Again, sell-side analysts tend to follow WAY too many stocks at a single time (as opposed to the buy side analysts who are way more focused on their own bucket of names in the portfolio). I would like to hear what the buy-side guys at, say, Orbimed, think.