Replies to post #4659 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[BTH]

So, no, you can't say on one hand the PFS is only going to be "weeks" and at the same time give the trial a 60% chance of succeeding

So, Don. How many "experts" in the field (key opinion leaders) have you spoken with about the SUCCEED trial? Have you spoken with more than 20 clinicians who have treated patients? Have you done more DD than the team at JEFF and Old Lehman (Barclays), and Leerink (who owns a MEDACORP which is a network of over 5,000 doctors)....of which, all three firms essentially agree upon the same thing - which is the same thing JEFF said yesterday.

Like I said, these analysts aren't very good at picking stocks, but they do have all the information at their disposal (unless you have greater information which we are unaware of).

[BTH]

So, no, you can't say on one hand the PFS is only going to be "weeks" and at the same time give the trial a 60% chance of succeeding

How do you come to that conclusion unless you have also spoken with dozens of Key Opinion Leaders (experts) on the drug, about the SUCCEED trial (like Leerink (who owns MEDACORP - a network of thousands of doctors, many of whom have participated in treating these patients many times); JP Morgan, LEHM, JEFF all have the same access, and all agree upon the same thing 0 which is what JEFF reported yesterday -that ridaforolimus "may" succeed - that sounds like a crap-shoot to me.

Like I said, these analysts aren't very good at picking stocks, but they do have all the information at their disposal.

I'm curious if you have access to this information as well.

[poorgradstudent]

btw, for sake of argument let's assume that you and the Jefferies analyst are right and the PFS is weeks and not months.

The analyst is saying the PFS benefit will be in weeks, not the absolute magnitude of PFS.