Replies to post #111890 on Biotech Values

[10nisman]

• We estimate that MTNA will record between $60-70 million in M-Enox revenues [per quarter] until a second generic is approved. Recall that MNTA currently receives a 45% share of M-Enox profits from partner Sandoz, yet MNTA will be entitled to merely a 9-15% royalty should a second generic Enoxaparin be approved. Our model currently suggests that MNTA will receive between $60-70 million per quarter in M-Enox revenues (Q4:10 estimate of $64.0 million) as long as M-Enox remains the sole generic.

Wedbush is modeling a very conservative quarterly mL revenue for Q4 2010 and throughout 2011 (project sole generic goes away in Q4 2011). IMHO, quarterly mL revenue will be closer to $74 million with little to no growth quarter over quarter going forward. In addition, Wedbush fails to take into consideration MNTA's NOL's and therefore greatly underestimates MNTA's 2011 EPS and quarterly cash balances in 2011. Also, Wedbush has MNTA paying taxes of almost a million dollars in 2012E even though they model nearly a $6 million loss for the year and a substantial loss in Q4 2011. There are substantial differences between book and taxable income however I don't see how they can model a tax liability for 2012.

10nis

[genisi]

...Teva may provide an update during an investor presentation on Jan 10, 2011...

In that convention, a week ago (#msg-58358853), Teva’s CFO said they estimate approval of generic Lovenox during 1Q11.

[pollyvonwog]

Should Teva announce a meaningful setback here, we would expect MNTA shares to move above $20. [This is silly, IMO; why does Wedbush think Teva will be honest with investors about setbacks to the Lovenox ANDA?]

Unbelievably, Wedbush was more or less on to something here.