5%-10% of the net profit to be paid as dividend does not justify the 200M cash. It does attract institutional investors to some degree, but share buyback program can do the same. If they buy back 1M shares, they would be huge to the stock price and float!
If they are going to do a 20% net profit as dividend, that's another story. But at this step, I don't think that's the best way to allocate their money.
It is just hard to balance this out. But personally, I would like to see both happening. They claimed about the dividend and I believe they will pay. They also claimed share repurchase, I believe they will at least buy back some shares, like 500K something.
Jacky bought @ 15 so I dont see why the company would not buy @16-17 range.