The wild cards you mentioned, although very hard to put any number on right now, can truly blow out any of our expectations. I am beginning to think that my initial out-of-the-blue projection of 10M first-year rev from SWITOW is ridiculously low. The tour bus market is another huge wild card. With a market of 115K busses and potentially much higher ad rates than intercity busses (market of 80-85K busses), this can turn out to be another big rev stream.
Here is a purely speculative numerical example just to stimulate some discussion. Assume we get 1% of the tour bus market at comparable 2010 rates as airport busses.
115k x 1%= 1,150 tour busses 1,150 x 93.6k/bus/yr= 107.6MM annual rev at a net margin of 55%, this alone can add 59MM earnings or $1.20+ eps.
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