Replies to post #15440 on Cotton & Western Mining Inc. (CWRN)

[Piecemaker]

Those are good, conservative estimates. But now we can factor in the company's own projected revenue of $32M per quarter.

32 x 4 = $128 M Revenue for 2011

128M x 40% = $51.2M Profit

51.2 ÷ 2.3B = 2.27¢ per Share

$.0227 x 10 P/E Ratio = 22.7¢ Projected share price.

If these numbers are accurate and our assumptions are conservative enough, then this price could well be much higher.

And, as you pointed out, a buyback program of 60% of the OS changes the equation like this:

$51.2M ÷ 920M OS = $.056/share x 10 P/E = 56¢ Projected per share.

Not too shabby!

[masscommuter]

Adjustments to Nov. 9 DD
This post must have had a zillion hits - nice work, still stands up.
a. Iron spot price is up, around 10%: $167/tonne vs. $152 in Nov. 9 DD
b. 50% profit margin makes more sense than 40% used in Nov. 9 DD
c. Taxes are not accounted for in Nov. 9, but 5 years of expense may result in a low tax bill.
d. Nov. 9 used 26% higher prod. rate: 135k tonnes/month vs. today's PR: "over 100,000 tonnes/month." Worth re-calc on that one?
e. Share BUYBACK: Let the shorts work in Bob's favor for a change!
Lower PPS = more and/or cheaper shares will be bought back!

I previously used sheer math to arrive at PPS of $0.36 in the end of 2011 considering everything planned by the company so far.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56464891

No gimmicks, no tricks, just reasonable numbers and basic algebra. This was without the buyback. Sure buying back 60% of the float can move PPS from $0.36 to $1.

[Militia Man]

What a day.. Very nice conservative estimates.. Chart looks good! Price action was fun.. CWRN is pulling her wait in IRON:-)