Replies to post #8719 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[swampdonkey]

Headley, i think they could have bought a fair amount of CCME for a fraction of $300M if they wanted to. I think the disclosure is 5% & given the turnover in float they could have done in very cheaply indeed without any of us noticing an uptick in the share price

[pedro45]

Just wondering if anyone has started to model for 2011 net income?
Unfortunately it is nearly impossible to do anything but take 2010's numbers and do some extrapolations because we don't know how many buses will be added or what kind of revenue SWITOW will generate. Nor do we know what kind of cap ex SWITOW will require.

We do know that Jacky mentioned on the Q3 call that management intended to raise rates by around 15%. And on the EPS side of the equation we know the 7M earn-out shares will be added to the OS count.

Overall though visibility could be a lot better. It's probably safe to assume they'll add another 4-6K buses, but the blend of airport runs and the city buses makes a big difference to NI. Rates will go higher, partially offset by higher concession fees.

What I would like to see is for Jacky to break out guidance into categories so we can see what each segment (buses/airport buses/SWITOW/other ad platforms) represent in terms of expected revenue growth. What we will likely get is the same kind of guidance as last year, not accounting for any buses not currently in the network, leaving us to make some assumptions. I'd like to think that $150M in NI is achievable, putting NI growth around 35%.