Replies to post #111004 on Biotech Values

[jbog]

Tinker,

Everyone's talking this dilution to death, but I'm under the impression they have a strong feeling that T-Enox is imminent.

If I look at history, they had a net cash position of $128 mil, $100 mil and $94 mil ending in years 07', 08' and 09'.

They would have ended 10' with a cash position at about $171 mil without the additional dilution, which as we can see is historically high. Let's also remember that they will receive a refund from Sandoz in the area of $25 mil if T-enox is approved.

The only reason I can see for raising money is that management thought $14 was a decent price.

[10nisman]

You don't mitigate risk unless you think the risk is of sufficient credibility and magnitude.

Do people with perfect driving records for 30 years still buy car insurance? Are they buying insurance because they are fearful that they may get into an accident or just covering their ass if something were to happen? Insurance is bought to manage the risk of an event that you have no visibility or little control over, however, it means nothing with respect to someone's fear level. Fear assumes some level of anxiety/distress/panic and CW and RS are not exhibiting any level of anxiety.

I think Teva's stealing of MNTA's IP is a credible threat. It is what big and aggressive competitors do to smaller innovator companies who threaten them.

I agree this is a credible threat. However, implementing proper internal controls and setting up the proper legal avenues is prudent management (that all smart management teams should be doing) versus an example of managing out of fear. IMO, fearful managers sound like Bill Marth trying to explain what's going on with tLovenox and why it hasn't been approved yet.

10nis