Replies to post #110854 on Biotech Values

[jq1234]

I wonder if the results reported for Xgeva in this trial regarding prevention of bone mets may cause EXEL to be more inclined to ultimately focus the development of XL184 on treating bone mets, as opposed to prevention, via trying to demonstrate a survival advantage and/or pain benefit?

EXEL announced during R&D day that the plan for pre-mCRPC is for future - they have to do dose ranging study for this indication. They can't use current dose for this indication. This indication is going to take years - denosumab trial for this indication lasted almost 5 years.

XL184 immediate plan is for chemo-treated mCRPC. Even non-chemo-treated mCRPC is not in immediate plan. You go with the qucikest way to market indication first.

Look at presentation 2 slide number 10.

[DewDiligence]

AMGN’s 30-minute webcast at the DB conference was entirely devoted to the recently reported Xgeva results in bone-met prevention in CRPC:

http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/confLobby.zhtml?ticker=AMGN&item_id=3578355

[DewDiligence]

AMGN reports additional Xgeva data from phase-3 trial for prevention of bone mets in patients with CRPC:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/17/amgen-xgeva-idUSN1716488420110517

AMGN reported in Dec 2010 that Xgeva produced a statsig increase in PFS in this indication (#msg-57720261); the new data on secondary endpoints do not change the prospects for Xgeva to a material degree, IMO.

A table of the phase-3 results for Xgeva/Prolia is in #msg-57938233.