Exactamundo. Good advice below, SFIO has huge potential and really is the only pure play ecig company that is publicly traded and all the hype about the potential explosion of ecigs in the population is obvious HOWEVER this company still has yet to really prove itself with earnings. Even a reported earnings that shows they are losing money, which I doubt will happen, would at least still allow investors to properly value the company.
The posting on the other board about future rev breakdown was interesting though I think the assumption of selling 200K units at $80 each is a little bit outlandish; I think if they get close to 5K units per month at the $80 per it would be the absolute minimum (at first) w/o military or bulk sales to distributors, which would be closer to an annual gross of 4.8M, which would be book of $.0064/shr without deducting costs, with decent P/E of about 4, it would trade at $.025/shr; this would be unfortunate and I dont think it will be the case. I have a wild guess that they will make closer to about 10M annually which would make a fair price of about 2 times that market cap so about $.05/shr; I think this is the key estimate which means they would need to sell about 120,000 units (do-able WITH military venture) but not without IMO. If it just simply exploded and they hit the ball out of the park somehow in 2011, selling 200K units THEN we are finally talking huge money bringing fair pps of about $.10 ! I don't think that is possible until a year of solid marketing and sales happen and they penetrate the market in the USA.. so in my opinion, talks of $1.00/share are kind of out there in wonderland, fun but not realistic. I think in the next few months WITH earnings report no matter what (even with loss) this should trade at about $.02-$.04 and with earnings of close to 5 to 10M it should trade close to $.06/shr and with blowout insane earnings, maybe trade north of $.10/shr
Any earnings over 1M but under 5M I would be ok buying shares under $.011/shr but any earnings under 1M I would say we should be back into sub penny, I know I know, I hate to deflate all the hype but cmon its better to face reality sooner rather than later.
The key to keeping SFIO strong in coming weeks is to be patient and understand the proper trading ranges pre and post earnings so that the limited number of SFIO investors dont freak out later next week because the share price doesnt just keep blowing up 30%+ every day from now on and then they think the 'run' is over and they dump shares. If all know that expected decent valuation is $.011 to $.025 then we should all be ok to just hold at those levels, just do not expect the pps to keep sky rocketing over $.03/shr and not stop for anything cuz then when it does traders will start dumping shares again and all in sub penny land just frozen with fear looking at each wondering who will put their head first in the chopping block again - dont let this frantic history repeat, have decent expectations and know the proper ranges.. thinking it should go to 50cents or a dollar is just unrealistic and will lead to bubble IMO.
Also, for any of those who own 4M shares + , you have to remember that if unloading little by little over time is fine and you could in fact unload at a single target pps, but if you panic and sell all at once there really is not going to be enough volume for you to put out limit orders and get them filled at a single pps, so as you dump the pps will fall hard and fast (just dont ever count your chickens before the eggs hatch and think that you have X dollars profit with zillions of shares cuz its anoher story unloading them in an environment of low volume and majority of sellers)..
All in all, I think pre-earnings we are in a great range if we trade between $.014 to $0.24 but post earnings I think we could easily trade up to about $.05/shr; then again with amazing earnings news soon AND a huge inflow of new investors, these estimates could just be blown out of the water and we could see crazy blow up of up to $.20/shr but dont count on it, talk of $1/shr is just amusing (maybe in a few years, be patient).
Also, I think many who are not on this board may not realize just how HUGE it is to see that Jonny Depp in that new movie is using an ecig and explains what it is in the movie! This is almost as huge of news to me as the FDA ruling because not only will smokers now seek alternatives but there could be in the coming weeks a flood of new investors into the ecig plays like SFIO. Just this single movie I think will have a sizable impact to both sales/marketing and investor inflows.
Long and strong SFIO (btw - great price action last week, keep up the patient NON-selling guys, very impressive!) good work
GLTA
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