Replies to post #110044 on Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

ARIA:

A lot of chatter of a MRK buyout (not just on msg boards either). I don't see it. What do you think?

Let me go roundabout on this:

Ariad have a small molecule with a finite patent life in an indication where 3 drugs (perhaps soon to be 4) from large companies are entrenched before them. Their molecule appears to offer a substantial value-added feature (T315I). Therefore, to maximize the income from this drug, I think they need to act quickly to try and move the drug up the chain. I don't think this is any great insight on my part.

So the problem becomes that a company like Ariad with limited finances is likely able to only tackle one setting at a time. We can surmise that they may want to near the market and/or get on the market in order to maximize the deal from a potential partner. My concern is how long is that going to take, and will the extra vig they get from waiting be offset by better terms in the deal?

I think that if a company were planning to buy Ariad, they would buy ASAP so that they can quickly implement their strategy to move into earlier treatment settings. It makes little sense to wait because times a wastin'....

Therefore, I would think such speculation is plausible.

[rkrw]

I think the speculation is just wishful thinking, typical of any biotech, any message board.