Replies to post #4292 on Market Swings

[capgain]

:) Ok hip thanks eom.

[Hippy13]

Well Cap:

Here you go, you get the stupor report.

I thought I had it nailed!!! If you do some E-wave majic from 5.12 to 8.18 then a 61% retrace takes you to 6.29, actual was 6.26; followed by a surge to 10.07, actual was 10.18; Things are working great. Even the 50% retrace to 7.65 which actually hit 7.60 works; the 61 % surge to 8.95 was actually 9.22... (thats a bit more error than I'm comfortable with) any it calculates out to a "bottom" at 6.59. There are a couple of problems here. First the "up" waves were only 3, so they are probably the Leg ABC from the DOWN, and what you are looking at now is actually wave 3 of a down wave.

Here is the math if that's the case. wave 1 10.18-7.6.0
calculates a 61% rise to 9.19, actual was 9.22, leading to a wave 3 completeing at 6.00, with the wave 4 bounce to about 7.96...

If you just look at indicators, daily A/D SUCKS BIG TIME, price has blown thru both the 50 and 200 MAs, and appears to be riding the lower BB down.

Looking at the weekly, I'm convinced that this is wave 3 Down, it is presently resting on both the 200 MA and the lower BB. Look at the real recent Macd crossover. With it resting on the lower bb and 200MA, that further provides support for the wave 3 theory. sure looks like it will bounce off of the lower BB on the weekly and pop for a couple of bucks, before the big dump.

The monthly chart is even scarier........

Soooooooo the great carmac says down to 6.00 with a pop to 8....

Hey that wasn't bad for being drunk now was it!

hip