Replies to post #109402 on Biotech Values

[genisi]

On Roch' Q3 2010 call, Pascal Soriot commented on the NEI trial:

As far as CATT, well also very difficult to speculate on the outcome of this study, as you know this is a study that is comparing Avastin and Lucentis in between of AMD. We expect the studies to read out early 2011. Now even if the study demonstrates non-inferiority of Avastin and Lucentis in the treatment of this patient, from an efficacy view point, the other dimension to consider is safety. And it may well be that the safety of the two agents is not comparable. So I think again, speculating about the results of the study will not help us much. We have to wait until the study reads out.

Let me just remind you though that first of all, it is clear that even if the agents were considered equivalent, the patients on Lucentis would be blindsided. So patients on Lucentis will be see their drug reimbursed by CMS if they round Lucentis prior to the results of the study. Lucentis is also going to be reimbursable to patients who fail Avastin if indeed again the agents were sure they are equivalent. And on top of it we have Avio and the additional indications that I had talked about before BME, which will help drive the course of Lucentis in the months and years to come.

So we expect of course a negative impact if again CATT was unfavorable to Lucentis, but difficult to speculate on the outcome of the study.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/230129-roche-holdings-ceo-discusses-q3-2010-results-earnings-call-transcript

[biomaven0]

Lucentis vs. Avastin:

I suspect this was the reason for the more treatments in the Avastin arm:

“An alternative possibility is that patients in the ranibizumab group had a more robust and immediate response during the first 3 months than those in the bevacizumab group, (see Figure 2), and as OCT findings were the primary guide for re-treatment, the early and more dramatic change in foveal thickness in this treatment arm may have contributed to fewer injections over time.”

I haven't seen the latest foveal thickness results of the VEGF trap vs. Lucentis - in the earlier trials it looked to me that the VEGF trap was producing consistently better results.

Peter