Replies to post #7150 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[value1008]

Headley, in my huge file on CCME, this is what i've gathered from some of our fellow posters here over the last few months:

10/21/10 by Gorilla: "23.8K [inter-city buses] gives you $14.2M [revs.] a month. [--that’s $596/mo per intercity bus] I'm using v80alue's model on this." (btw, that's not me, Value1008)...

9/7/10 by Gunnar: "...with their regular [inter-city bus] network: 22,300 buses @ $22/minute = $12.9 million revenue per month." --that's $578.50/mo per intercity bus.


If we use $580-$596/mo per intercity bus as the avg revenue amount, the new range of 26,400 buses would equal $15.31M to $15.73M per month, or yearly $183.7M up to $188.7M just from this segment alone--NOT INCLUDING ANY ADDITIONAL INTERCITY BUSES ADDED FOR 2011.

On the airport shuttle buses, Gunnar had worked out the following in that 9/7/10 post, based on just 4 airport bus contracts at the time contributing to revenue:
"436 buses @ $341/minute = $3.4 million revenue per month [or $7,800/month per bus]."

Now, with 6 airport contracts, the total # of shuttle buses is 507 buses, which presumably (at the same rate) are contributing $3.95M/mo, or $47.4M/year, again, NOT INCLUDING ANY ADDITIONAL AIRPORT BUSES-- and Jacky told us in conf.call that 2-3 more airport contracts were to come by end of 2010 (with presumably more in 2011).

So from just these two segments' buses CURRENTLY CONTRACTED, not including yet-to-be-announced bus contracts, and whatever other possible biz segments mgmt develops for 2011, we're looking at a baseline of around $234M in revenues for 2011; and we can likely add at least another 25% growth in # of buses for each segment, which could put CCME somewhere around $292M in revenues for 2011. I notice that the conservative Ping Luo has an estimated 2011 revenue total of $288.12M and net income of $125.56M for CCME, which might include extra revenue streams I'm not including here. Ping Luo is using somewhat lower net profit margins than Fernando, et al. (in a post from 11/2/10 Fernando sees more like $135M - $145M in net income for 2011).