Dollar-regarding total doom a while ago. Yes indeud...according to the media, experts, and soothsayers on these internets a month ago.
Enough so that this was a fairly easy call:
[so why don't the "experts" ever catch important turns?]
..."Short term sentiment on the Dollar is almost unanimously Negative.
That should have one on alert for a potential reversal toward lower PM prices and a higher Dollar".
fabian Sunday, October 17, 2010 4:07:08 AM
Re: fabian post# 661645 Post # of 663969
Fri Oct. 15. Sentiment towards gold and silver has become excessively bullish short term. IOHO.
That is one reason we took some off the table on Thu. [Thu. was the first day in a couple of years our timing instinct kicked in and said sell some [silver]].
It was the correct action if past 10 year history is any guide.
We believe the timing of that sale Thu will turn out to have been quite good unless "this time is different"
Going with "this time is different" is seldom going with house odds, although rarely, some times it is different.
We received a "bullish on gold" come on in the mail Thu.
Not content to scream "GOLD going to $5,000 make 4 x your money"...They proudly announced how YOU can turn that move into a zillion % return with leverage and of course they will show you how. A contrarian small warning shot across the bow.
So, while long term it's not likely a top in either gold or silver has been seen [and we will continue to sit on the vast majority of it], short term, one might want to be a bit careful unless "This time is truly different" [keep an eye on the charts to see if possible parabolic develops]
At the least, a sober and rational approach is called for, not a time to let emotions replace thinking.
[a reminder, this is only about the short to intermediate term we're talking about]
As as mentioned this past week:
Short term sentiment on gold is [most likely] almost unanimously bullish
Short term sentiment on the Dollar is almost unanimously Negative.
That should have one on alert for a potential reversal toward lower PM prices and a higher Dollar.
Note also that the 30 yr T Bond had a sharp reversal lower [higher rate] last week.
The above three situations are being ignored by the media which reflects mass psychology right now but they should not be ignored.
Watch them closely and don't pay any attention to the crowd or media opinions [other than as a contrary indicators to help in timing reversals]
Those reversals would seem tough because Bernanke is basically begging, pushing investors to leave short term cash and buy something, anything, along with depreciating the dollar, but sentiment is what it is, which means...be careful about joining the PM party [unless it is truly for long term and you are willing to add lower] and dollar bashing party as it could be getting late in it's current run
Stock market sentiment is not extreme.
Quite mixed, and probably overall more in the range one would define as neutral.
Should bonds, the dollar, precious metals "unexpectedly" reverse, it will be interesting to see how the stock market deals with it.
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